Patch Now, Pay Later? Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities and Technical Debt
Abstract for Patch Now, Pay Later? Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities and Technical Debt
We study how cybersecurity vulnerabilities affect firm performance. We analyze
551 open-core software firms from 2010 to 2025, comparing firms affected by
vulnerability discoveries with unaffected firms. These discoveries concern
third-party dependency packages, making their timing plausibly exogenous to
the firms using them. Exposed firms experience approximately 10% slower
headcount growth relative to their pre-treatment average and a 1.7 percentage
point decline in acquisition probability. Developer activity shifts toward
remediation: the share of non-remediation work falls by 2.8 percentage points,
while elevated fix-related activity persists for twelve months. These changes
accompany faster accumulation of technical debt and cognitive complexity,
which grow approximately 20 and 16–21 percentage points faster, respectively.
Together, the findings suggest that cybersecurity vulnerabilities can disrupt
firm growth and place persistent demands on engineering resources.